Southern Africa is currently facing a severe agricultural challenge as key maize-producing nations including South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe report potential declines in grain harvests due to intense dryness induced by El Niño. This situation poses a significant threat to the maize supply chain across the region, escalating the risk of food insecurity and potentially necessitating imports to bridge the shortfall.
The onset of El Niño, characterized by its dry weather patterns, was not entirely unforeseen in the Southern Africa region. The year began with promising rainfall, but conditions deteriorated rapidly towards the end of January, leading to substantial damage to crops. This shift towards dryness and heatwaves, intensified by the broader context of climate change challenges, has prompted concerns over the sustainability of maize production in the area.
Research into the grains market and observations from fieldwork across South Africa’s summer crop-growing regions reveal a grim outlook. There’s a clear indication that the region is bracing for a challenging period ahead, with a notable reduction in crop volumes expected across Southern Africa.
The impact of the adverse weather conditions varies across the region, with some countries potentially facing increased domestic hunger challenges. For instance, forecasts in Zimbabwe and Zambia already predict a dire need for action. In response, it’s crucial for governments to strategize carefully, avoiding measures like export restrictions and maize price caps that could exacerbate the situation. Instead, interventions should focus on supporting households directly.
In South Africa, a survey conducted by Grain South Africa revealed that the extreme heat and dry conditions have led to a quicker-than-expected deterioration of the grain and oilseeds harvest. The Crop Estimates Committee anticipates a 13% decline in the summer grains and oilseed harvest compared to the previous year, primarily due to the impact of dry weather conditions and heatwaves.
Despite the challenges, South Africa’s expected harvest could still meet domestic consumption needs, albeit with a reduced volume for exports. The country’s ability to maintain some level of exports is a silver lining, supported by higher dam levels and early-season rains that have helped buffer commercial fruit and vegetable production, which relies heavily on irrigation.
In Zambia, the situation is particularly severe, with President Hakainde Hichilema declaring the country’s drought a national disaster and emergency. The drought has reportedly destroyed nearly half of the commercial maize planting area, which could significantly impact food production and eliminate Zambia’s capacity to export maize to neighboring countries in need.
Zimbabwe, too, faces its own set of challenges, with an estimated 2.7 million citizens at risk of hunger due to drought impacts. The country plans to import a substantial volume of maize to address its needs, traditionally relying on South Africa and Zambia as primary suppliers. However, with Zambia likely out of the export market and South Africa’s reduced export capacity, the region faces a complex puzzle in managing maize supplies.
As Southern Africa navigates this critical period, policymakers are urged to consider several key strategies. These include avoiding restrictive measures that could hinder production, ensuring interventions are targeted at the household level, and engaging with international partners to secure maize imports if necessary. Collaboration and strategic planning will be essential in mitigating the impacts of this agricultural crisis and securing the food security of millions in the region.
Source: MoneyWeb
