South Africa’s political landscape is on the brink of a seismic shift as President Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress (ANC) confront an unprecedented electoral challenge. With results from approximately 71% of polling stations accounted for, the ANC’s grip on power appears significantly weakened. The party has garnered less than 42% of the vote—a sharp decline from the 57.5% achieved in the 2019 elections. This drastic reduction signals a potential end to the ANC’s uninterrupted majority rule since the apartheid era ended.
The Implications of Coalition Politics
The decline in ANC’s vote share suggests that for the first time in three decades, the party will need to navigate the complexities of coalition governance. To maintain control, the ANC may have to forge alliances with one or more of the smaller political parties. Such coalitions will likely require the ANC to make substantial policy concessions and possibly cede key cabinet positions, marking a significant shift in South Africa’s governance landscape.
Amidst this electoral turmoil, President Ramaphosa finds his leadership under intense scrutiny. While a senior ANC official has endorsed his continued leadership, the voices within his party and opposition ranks calling for his resignation grow louder. This internal discord is compounded by the absence of a clear successor, leaving the party’s future uncertain. Political analysts, including the University of Cape Town’s Professor Anthony Butler, note the lack of a unifying figure capable of steering the party through these turbulent times.
Zuma’s Shadow and Public Dissatisfaction
The current electoral challenge is also intensified by the influence of Ramaphosa’s predecessor, Jacob Zuma, whose support for the newly successful uMkhonto we Sizwe party has significantly dented ANC’s support base, especially in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal. This strategic move by Zuma highlights the vulnerabilities within the ANC, particularly in regions where his influence remains strong.
Moreover, the election results reflect widespread public dissatisfaction with the ANC’s handling of key national issues such as rampant unemployment, escalating crime rates, and persistent power outages. These challenges have fueled voter frustration, contributing to the ANC’s declining popularity.
While Ramaphosa has been lauded for his role in advancing South Africa’s stature on the global stage and his leadership during past international crises, his domestic policies have faced criticism for lack of decisiveness. His cautious approach, aimed at maintaining party unity, appears to have backfired, leading to stagnation in crucial economic reforms and an inability to effectively address ongoing scandals within the party.
As South Africa awaits the final election results, the future of Ramaphosa’s presidency—and indeed the direction of the ANC—hangs in the balance. The potential shift towards coalition government presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the ANC to redefine its leadership and policy directions in response to the electorate’s changing expectations.
Source: Reuters
