The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party since the end of apartheid, is confronting a pivotal moment as recent polls show its support dwindling to just over 40%. This development comes just weeks before a general election that could fundamentally alter the political landscape of the nation.
Declining Support and Electoral Implications
An Ipsos opinion poll recently revealed that support for the ANC has slipped to 40.2%, a slight decrease from 40.5% in February and down from 43% last October. The poll, which involved face-to-face interviews with 2,545 registered voters across all nine provinces, suggests the ANC might struggle to secure a parliamentary majority on its own for the first time in 30 years. This scenario would necessitate forming a coalition to govern—a significant shift from the party’s dominant solo governance since it first came to power under Nelson Mandela in 1994.
Should the ANC fail to garner the 50% threshold required for an outright majority, it will face the unprecedented task of seeking coalition partners. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition party, has shown incremental gains, with current support at 21.9%, up from 20.5% in February. Meanwhile, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), another major opposition force, has seen its support decrease to 11.5% from 19.6% following the emergence of the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, endorsed by former President Jacob Zuma, which now holds 8.4% according to Ipsos.
Voter Sentiments and Challenges
The ANC’s eroding support reflects growing public dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of critical issues such as unemployment, corruption, and poor public services. As the election nears, the ANC has attempted to highlight its achievements over the decades, yet voter unrest seems to be tipping the scales. This discontent is shaping up to be a decisive factor in the upcoming election, as more voters express their frustration with the status quo and look toward alternative parties that promise reform and greater accountability.
The potential for coalition politics introduces a new dynamic into South African governance, with the ANC possibly having to compromise and collaborate with parties that have fundamentally different ideologies and policies. This election not only serves as a test of the ANC’s enduring appeal but also as a referendum on the future direction of the country. As South Africans prepare to vote for both a new parliament and provincial legislatures, the outcome of this election could redefine the political order in South Africa for years to come.
Source: Reuters
