KEY POINTS
- Nigeria’s inflation hit 33.8%, well above the 2024 target.
- IMF reports worsening food insecurity despite agriculture reforms.
- Rising debt limits resources for critical development spending.
According to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) report on sub-Saharan Africa, the economic reforms launched 18 months ago by Nigeria’s federal government are falling short of expectations.
Stakeholders in the food sector have also rated the policies poorly, highlighting continued struggles to improve key aspects of the nation’s economy.
The IMF’s 2024 outlook for the region notes an average economic growth rate of 3.6 percent, but Nigeria’s projected 3.19 percent growth lags behind. While presenting the report at Lagos Business School, IMF Deputy Director Catherine Patillo praised fiscal improvements in countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zambia but omitted Nigeria from those making notable progress.
“Macroeconomic imbalances are reducing in many countries, but inflation in Nigeria remains stubbornly high, rising to 33.8 percent in October,” Patillo said.
She added that while other nations are seeing inflation stabilize within target ranges, Nigeria remains far off its 21 percent inflation target for 2024.
Inflation, exchange rates, and debt woes
The report flagged Nigeria for its persistent inflation and currency instability, describing its exchange rate volatility as the worst in the region this year. It also highlighted Nigeria’s debt burden, with interest payments absorbing 15 percent of total revenue—a level linked to fiscal stress.
“Debt service capacity remains low,” the report stated.
“In nearly one-quarter of countries, interest payments exceed 20 percent of revenue, undermining resources for development.”
Challenges in agriculture and food security
Stakeholders in Nigeria’s food sector have criticized the federal government’s agricultural policies, stating they have failed to address food insecurity. ActionAid Nigeria Country Director Andrew Mamedu noted that despite the government declaring a state of emergency on food production, Nigeria ranks among the most food-insecure nations globally.
“Current reforms, while well-intentioned, have not delivered measurable results for the average Nigerian,” Mamedu said. “Food prices remain high, and many Nigerians still struggle to afford basic staples.”
Farmers and advocacy groups, including the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), have called for better implementation mechanisms. AFAN President Ibrahim Kabir emphasized that while reforms are necessary, their impact has been undermined by poor execution.
“The future of agriculture is bright but still a work in progress,” Kabir said, urging for more effective measures to support farmers and improve agricultural infrastructure.
Calls for action
Experts and stakeholders have urged the government to focus on smallholder farmers, improve rural infrastructure, and provide subsidies for inputs such as organic fertilizers and irrigation systems.
According to a report by Vanguard, Jerry Olanrewaju, Team Lead of Jet FarmNG, said the administration must prioritize implementation over aspirational policies. “We need actionable frameworks with clear indicators to track progress, such as food production levels and arable land cultivation,” he said.
Despite some successes, including direct distribution of farming inputs to select clusters, AFAN Abuja Chair Nkechi Okafor said many policies remain in preliminary stages. “If the government maintains this direct approach to farmers, we could see significant improvement,” she said.
Outlook and recommendations
The IMF warned that Nigeria faces “adjustment fatigue” due to political and social resistance to reforms. It recommended a rethinking of reform strategies to build public support, including better communication and compensation measures.
The report also highlighted success stories in countries like Ghana, Botswana, and Zambia, which have made strides in macroeconomic stability and resource exports. Meanwhile, Nigeria, as an oil-exporting nation, continues to struggle with low growth and high resistance to reform.
To reverse the trend, stakeholders advocate for more targeted investments and an inclusive approach that tackles poverty, inequality, and infrastructure deficits.
Nigeria’s economic reforms remain a mixed bag, with progress hampered by inflation, debt, and slow implementation in key sectors such as agriculture. As stakeholders call for immediate action, the federal government faces mounting pressure to deliver tangible results.
