The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), grappling with departures like Angola, is eyeing Namibia as a potential member, with the nation poised to become Africa’s fourth-largest oil producer by the next decade. Recent discoveries by TotalEnergies and Shell, estimated at 2.6 billion barrels, have positioned Namibia for significant oil production, projected to commence around 2030.
Initial discussions focus on Namibia’s potential inclusion in OPEC’s Charter of Cooperation, a platform for long-term energy market dialogue, akin to Brazil’s recent entry into the fold. However, OPEC aspires for Namibia to eventually attain full membership, according to NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, who facilitated discussions between the two parties. OPEC’s proactive engagement, described as a “charm offensive” by Ayuk, aims to solidify Namibia’s cooperation, though outcomes remain uncertain.
While OPEC has yet to comment directly on these developments, Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais previously indicated ongoing talks with multiple nations regarding charter participation, with Namibia hinted among them. Al Ghais’s meeting with Namibian Minister of Mines and Energy Tom Alweendo further emphasized the potential collaboration under the Charter of Cooperation.
Although Namibian Petroleum Commissioner Maggy Shino expressed interest in OPEC membership previously, Minister Alweendo indicated in March that such considerations were premature, emphasizing that Namibia had not been formally approached and highlighting the nation’s focus on commencing oil production before assessing membership prospects.
Despite this, talks between OPEC and Namibian authorities are expected to resume in late April during an energy conference, with Al Ghais slated to address the gathering. Pranav Joshi of Rystad Energy notes that Namibia’s oil discoveries this decade amount to 2.6 billion barrels, with major firms like Chevron, Rhino Resources, Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas, and Galp Energia actively involved in exploration and appraisal activities alongside Total and Shell.
Joshi projects Namibia’s potential peak production capacity to reach 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the next decade, although this figure may escalate with further successful exploration endeavors. While this falls short of Angola’s current output of approximately 1.1 million bpd, Namibia’s trajectory underscores its emergence as a significant oil player in Africa. Angola’s departure from OPEC in December 2023, citing dissatisfaction with output ceilings set by OPEC+, illustrates the evolving dynamics within the organization.
