KEY POINTS
- The Hormuz blockade removed roughly nine million barrels of crude oil from daily global supply.
- Nigeria’s daily output has risen from 1.4 million to between 1.7 and 1.8 million barrels since the crisis.
- Oil theft costs Nigeria billions annually and caps output well below its 2.4 million barrel potential.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has turned Nigeria into one of the most strategically valuable oil producers on earth. Two Nigerian billionaires are positioned better than anyone else to capture the opportunity. The question is whether the country’s oil theft problem will let them.
Satellite images analysed by European business analysts show Aliko Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery near Lagos running near full capacity. At the same time, Benedict Peters’ Aiteo operation in the Niger Delta is producing Nembe crude, a light sweet variety that European and Asian refineries describe as a near-perfect substitute for the heavier Gulf grades now blocked by the Hormuz crisis.
The Hormuz blockade has removed approximately nine million barrels of crude oil from global daily supply, with another five million barrels of refined products also affected. Nigeria’s daily output has climbed from roughly 1.4 million barrels at the start of the conflict to between 1.7 and 1.8 million barrels. Industry sources say the country could technically reach between 2.4 and three million barrels per day. The infrastructure to do it still exists.
What makes Nembe crude so valuable right now
Nembe crude requires almost no desulphurisation. Refineries can produce gasoline, diesel and kerosene from it with minimal additional processing, saving significant energy costs compared to the sulphur-heavy Gulf grades it is replacing. In the current environment, that advantage commands an extraordinary commercial premium.
Peters founded Aiteo in 2008. The company built a 97-kilometre pipeline to carry Nembe crude from the Niger Delta to an Atlantic export terminal. The pipeline was eventually abandoned after up to 50 percent of the oil transported through it simply disappeared, siphoned off by an organised theft network with alleged ties to contractors and military personnel. Peters’ solution was to abandon the pipeline entirely and move the crude by river tanker to an offshore floating storage vessel, the Galilean 7, anchored 27 kilometres offshore. The workaround is less efficient. It is also considerably harder to steal from.
Dangote’s refinery and the oil mafia
Dangote’s refinery produced 54 million litres of gasoline, 24 million litres of diesel and 23 million litres of kerosene per day in April 2026, according to data from Nigeria’s petroleum regulator. The facility has been ramping toward full capacity at precisely the moment global refined product markets face their most severe strain in years. Dangote is also entering crude production directly through an offshore field called Kalaekule in the Niger Delta, where pumping began in April 2026.
Neither billionaire has been left untouched by the theft networks. In mid-April, the Nigerian army arrested 15 people attempting to steal crude from a vessel supplying the Dangote refinery. Dangote has accused criminal networks of deliberately targeting his operation because domestic refining capacity threatens to end the import dependence their business model relies on.
Nigeria is sitting on the most commercially valuable oil position it has occupied in years. Whether the country converts that position into lasting gains depends on whether it can break the organised theft network that has bled its oil sector for decades.ou said: Write this to get into ggoogle discover, please.
