KEY POINTS
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Angola oil output decline falls below 1 million barrels per day.
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Revenue targets are at risk amid volatile global oil prices.
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Foreign investment and IMF support are being considered to stabilize production.
Angola’s crude production slipped below 1 million barrels a day in September, dealing a blow to government revenue expectations and underlining the country’s struggle to sustain its oil-dependent economy. Data from the National Agency for Petroleum and Gas showed daily output at 998,757 barrels, falling short of the government’s projection of 1.07 million.
The drop comes as global oil prices hover below the $70-per-barrel benchmark set in Angola’s 2025 budget, further tightening fiscal room. The development states the mounting challenges for Africa’s second-largest crude exporter, which left OPEC in 2023 after disputes over production quotas.
IMF support and new investments on the table
With the shortfall widening, officials are weighing potential financial backing from the International Monetary Fund, though no formal request has yet been filed. Investors including Equinor ASA and Chevron Corp. have expanded activity in Angola, while TotalEnergies SE last year approved a $6 billion offshore project meant to steady longer-term output.
Accordfng to Business Insider Africa, Oil Minister Diamantino Pedro Azevedo has repeatedly warned that declining production remains the government’s “biggest challenge” despite renewed investment. Efforts to attract new projects are competing with an uncertain global backdrop marked by high interest rates and fragile investor confidence.
Angola cuts reliance on oil-backed loans
Beyond output concerns, Luanda is working to reduce dependence on resource-backed borrowing. Debt to China, once standing at $10.15 billion at the end of 2024, dropped to $8.94 billion by July, with authorities projecting a further reduction to between $7.5 billion and $8 billion by year-end.
Crude exports are also set to decline. Preliminary schedules indicate shipments will fall to 994,000 barrels a day in October, down from 1.09 million in September—another sign of mounting pressure on Angola’s oil-dependent economy.
