The recent reports from South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe signal a potential downturn in grain production, precipitated by El Niño-induced dryness. This phenomenon has exacerbated conditions in a region already vulnerable to climatic fluctuations, putting the southern African maize supply chain in jeopardy. South Africa and Zambia, in particular, have been severely impacted by heatwaves and drought, while neighboring smaller producers such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, and Namibia face similar challenges. The decline in harvests in these major maize-producing countries elevates the risk of food insecurity, necessitating imports to offset regional maize supply deficits.
El Niño events, characterized by dryness in southern Africa, are not new. However, the intensity this year follows a period of favorable rainfall, highlighting the erratic nature of current climate conditions. This sudden shift to dryness since the end of January has inflicted significant damage on crops, a manifestation of broader climate change challenges. Our research and fieldwork across South Africa’s summer crop-growing regions indicate a troubling outlook for the region, with daily observations confirming a widespread impact on crops and a consequent substantial reduction in crop volume.
The implications of reduced grain production extend beyond the immediate threat to food security. They also pose a challenge to regional economies dependent on agriculture. The anticipated increase in domestic hunger, particularly in Zimbabwe and Zambia, underscores the need for careful policy responses. Governments must avoid counterproductive measures such as export restrictions and maize price caps, focusing instead on household-level support to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable populations.
In South Africa, extreme heat and dry conditions have accelerated the deterioration of the grain and oil-seed harvest, with the Crop Estimates Committee projecting a 13% decrease in the summer grain and oil-seed harvest compared to the previous year. This decline, primarily due to reduced yields rather than a decrease in planted acreage, indicates the severe impact of adverse weather conditions. Despite this, South Africa’s expected harvest might still meet domestic consumption needs, with a possibility of exporting, albeit at reduced volumes.
The situation in Zambia is particularly dire, with President Hakainde Hichilema declaring a national disaster and emergency due to a severe drought. Approximately half of the country’s maize production has been decimated, impacting food production and eliminating the possibility of exports to neighboring countries reliant on Zambia’s maize.
Zimbabwe’s scenario is equally grim, with millions at risk of hunger and plans to import significant volumes of maize. The country’s reliance on imports, traditionally sourced from South Africa and Zambia, poses a dilemma given the production shortfalls in these countries. This strain on maize supplies in Southern Africa illustrates the interconnectedness of regional food security and the critical role of effective policy responses.
Policy considerations must therefore prioritize avoiding export restrictions and maize price caps, which could further disincentivize production amidst rising input costs. Support interventions should focus on household-level assistance, leveraging fiscal space for program implementation. Regional governments should collaborate with international bodies like the World Food Programme and engage with global producers to secure alternative maize supplies, ensuring the region can navigate through this challenging period without exacerbating food insecurity.
The collective response to this crisis must be multifaceted, involving government, the private sector, and international partnerships. By addressing immediate needs and planning for future contingencies, southern Africa can mitigate the adverse effects of climate-induced challenges on food security. The situation underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies and resilience-building in the face of climate change, ensuring that the region’s agricultural sector can withstand the increasing frequency and severity of weather-related disruptions.
Source: Newsday
