Former president Jacob Zuma’s endorsement of a new political party in South Africa could spell trouble for the ruling African National Congress (ANC), which has governed the country since the end of apartheid in 1994. According to a recent poll by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), Zuma’s party, uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK), could win 24% of the vote in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa’s second most populous. This would slash the ANC’s national tally by about five percentage points, reducing its share to just over 40% or even below that.
The SRF poll, which surveyed 820 people with a margin of error of plus or minus 5%, is one of the few independent surveys available ahead of the national and provincial elections, expected to take place later this year. The poll also suggests that the ANC is facing a decline in other provinces, such as Gauteng, Western Cape, and Eastern Cape, where it could lose its majority or be forced to form coalitions with smaller parties.
The ANC’s popularity has been eroded by corruption scandals, severe power outages, rampant crime, and the collapse of basic services such as water provision. Zuma, who ruled South Africa for almost nine years before being forced to step down by the ANC in 2018 after a series of scandals, declared in December that he wouldn’t vote for the ANC and would instead back the new MK party. The party is named after the armed wing of the ANC, which fought against the apartheid government. Zuma was expelled from the ANC last month.
Zuma’s party has the potential to attract disgruntled ANC supporters, especially in rural areas where Zuma still enjoys a loyal following. The party also appeals to some veterans of the liberation struggle, who feel marginalized by the current ANC leadership. Zuma’s party claims to represent the true values of the ANC and to fight for economic transformation and social justice.
However, Zuma’s party also faces several challenges, such as a lack of resources, organizational capacity, and visibility. The party also has to contend with the opposition from the ANC, which has accused Zuma of dividing the liberation movement and undermining democracy. Moreover, Zuma himself is facing multiple legal battles, including a corruption trial and a contempt of court case for refusing to testify to a judicial inquiry into state corruption.
The SRF poll indicates that the ANC’s main rivals, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), are not making significant gains from the ANC’s woes. The DA, the country’s largest opposition party, is polling at 19% nationally, while the EFF, a radical leftist party, is polling at 16%. Both parties are struggling to expand their support base beyond their core constituencies of urban, middle-class voters and young, poor, and black voters, respectively.
The poll also shows that the political landscape in South Africa is becoming more fragmented and diverse, with the emergence of smaller parties such as Build One South Africa, the Patriotic Alliance, and the Good Party. These parties are hoping to capitalize on the dissatisfaction with the established parties and offer alternative visions for the country’s future.
The SRF poll suggests that the 2024 elections could be a turning point for South Africa’s democracy, as the ANC’s dominance is challenged by new forces and coalitions. The outcome of the elections could have significant implications for the country’s stability, governance, and development.
Source: Yahoo News
