Ethiopia has asked for a summit of East African leaders to discuss its controversial plan to gain access to the Red Sea through the breakaway region of Somaliland, which it hopes to recognize as a sovereign state in exchange for a naval base.
The request comes amid rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, where Ethiopia is locked in a bitter border dispute with Sudan and faces international pressure to end its military intervention in the northern region of Tigray. Ethiopia’s move also risks angering Somalia, which considers Somaliland as part of its territory and has accused Ethiopia of meddling in its internal affairs.
Ethiopia, a landlocked country of more than 110 million people, has long sought to secure a foothold on the Red Sea, a strategic and economic waterway that connects the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean. The Red Sea hosts about 10% of the world’s seaborne trade and is a vital route for oil shipments from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts to resolve a decades-long conflict with neighboring Eritrea, has pursued an ambitious agenda of regional integration and economic development. He has also expanded Ethiopia’s influence in the Horn of Africa, where it has deployed troops to support the transitional government in Somalia and mediated peace talks between Sudan and South Sudan.
But Abiy’s vision has faced growing challenges, both at home and abroad. His decision to launch a military offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a former ruling party that defied his authority, has triggered a humanitarian crisis and drawn international condemnation. His government has also clashed with Sudan over a disputed border area and a giant hydropower dam on the Nile River that Egypt and Sudan fear will reduce their water supply.
In this context, Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland, which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991 but has not been recognized by any country, could further complicate the regional dynamics and jeopardize the stability of the Horn of Africa.
According to a memorandum of understanding signed on January 1, Ethiopia would grant Somaliland 20 kilometers of sea access and build a naval base on its coast, while Somaliland would receive diplomatic recognition and economic assistance from Ethiopia. The agreement also envisages cooperation on security, trade, and infrastructure development.
The deal has been welcomed by Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi, who said it would boost his country’s quest for international recognition and enhance its strategic position in the Red Sea. Somaliland, which has a population of about 4 million and a functioning democracy, has been seeking to establish itself as a reliable partner for regional and global powers, especially in the fight against piracy and terrorism.
However, the deal has been strongly opposed by Somalia’s federal government, which has accused Ethiopia of violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, also known as Farmajo, has called for an emergency meeting of the African Union to discuss the matter and urged Ethiopia to respect Somalia’s unity and political independence.
Somalia’s relations with Ethiopia have deteriorated since Abiy came to power in 2018 and forged a historic peace deal with Eritrea, Somalia’s longtime rival. Farmajo has also accused Ethiopia of interfering in Somalia’s internal politics and supporting candidates who oppose his bid for re-election in the upcoming polls.
The deal has also raised concerns among other countries in the region, such as Djibouti and Eritrea, which have strategic interests and military bases on the Red Sea. Djibouti, which hosts the largest US military base in Africa and China’s first overseas naval base, has warned that Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland could destabilize the region and undermine the efforts to restore peace and stability in Somalia.
Eritrea, which has a tense relationship with Ethiopia despite the peace agreement, has also expressed its reservations about the deal and called for a dialogue among the Horn of Africa countries to address the outstanding issues. Eritrea, which has a long coastline on the Red Sea, has been accused of supporting rebel groups in Ethiopia and Somalia and violating human rights and democratic norms.
The deal also poses a challenge for the international community, which has been supporting Somalia’s reconstruction and reconciliation process and trying to prevent further escalation of violence and instability in the Horn of Africa. The US, the EU, the UN, and the AU have urged Ethiopia and Somalia to resolve their differences through dialogue and respect the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access is not a new phenomenon, nor is it likely to end anytime soon. The Red Sea is a vital lifeline for Ethiopia’s economy and security, and a source of opportunity and aspiration for its people. But it is also a potential flashpoint for conflict and competition, as the region’s geopolitics become more complex and unpredictable. Ethiopia will have to balance its interests and ambitions with the realities and sensitivities of its neighbors and partners and seek to build trust and cooperation rather than confrontation and rivalry. Only then can the Red Sea become a bridge rather than a barrier for the Horn of Africa?
Source: Bloomberg
