Gabon, a small oil-rich country in Central Africa, is facing a critical moment in its history as a team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to visit the country in late January or early February for Article IV discussions, a source told Reuters on Monday.
The visit will be the first since a coup d’état in August 2023 toppled the rule of President Ali Bongo Ondimba, who had been in power since 2009 following the death of his father Omar Bongo, who had ruled the country for 42 years. The coup, led by General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, ended the 56-year-long dynasty of the Bongo family, which had been accused of corruption, nepotism, and electoral fraud.
The coup also cast doubt on the status of the IMF program that had provided support to Gabon in July 2021 to help it cope with the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The program, which was worth $152 million, aimed to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen public financial management, and foster inclusive growth. However, the IMF suspended its disbursements after the coup, pending a review of the situation.
The IMF visit will be crucial for assessing the economic and political outlook of Gabon, as well as the prospects of resuming the program or negotiating a new one. Gabon, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), relies heavily on oil revenues, which account for 60% of its national income. However, the country has been hit hard by the decline in oil prices and production in recent years, as well as the effects of the pandemic, which caused a contraction of 1.8% in its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020.
According to the IMF, Gabon’s economy was expected to grow by 1.2% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022, but these projections were made before the coup and may need to be revised. The country also faces high levels of public debt, which reached 71% of GDP in 2020, and low levels of human development, with a third of its population living below the poverty line of $5.50 per day.
The IMF visit will also be an opportunity for the new authorities to demonstrate their commitment to economic reforms and good governance, as well as to seek the support of the international community. The coup leaders, who formed a junta called the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions, announced that they would hold elections in 2025 and that they would respect the country’s international obligations. They also released Bongo from house arrest on 8 September and allowed him to leave the country for medical treatment.
The coup was condemned by the African Union, the United Nations, and several countries, including France, the former colonial power and a close ally of the Bongo family. However, some observers have also expressed hope that the coup could pave the way for a more democratic and inclusive political system in Gabon, which has been plagued by social unrest and opposition protests in recent years.
The IMF visit will be a test for the junta’s credibility and legitimacy, as well as for the future of Gabon’s economy and society. The outcome of the visit could determine whether Gabon will be able to overcome its challenges and achieve its potential, or whether it will slide into further instability and isolation.
Source: Reuters
