South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), the nation’s ruling party since 1994, recently commemorated its 112th anniversary, facing what could be its most challenging national elections yet. President Cyril Ramaphosa, also the ANC leader, is poised to address thousands at the Mbombela Stadium in Mpumalanga province, outlining the party’s agenda for the upcoming year.
The ANC, renowned for its anti-apartheid legacy under Nelson Mandela, has been at the forefront of South Africa’s liberation struggle. However, the party now confronts mounting criticism over its inability to deliver basic services to the impoverished Black majority, against a backdrop of deteriorating economic conditions. With an alarming unemployment rate of approximately 32%, of which 60% are young people, the ANC faces a disenchanted electorate increasingly impatient with unmet promises of improved living standards.
According to a report by The Guardian, polls indicate the ANC might struggle to secure over 50% of the vote—a threshold it has comfortably surpassed in its three-decade rule. This decline in popularity is further exacerbated by rampant allegations of corruption among its leaders, casting a shadow over the party’s reputation.
Amid economic challenges, South Africans endure frequent power outages as Eskom, the primary energy supplier, fails to provide consistent electricity to millions of homes and businesses. Dirk Kotze, a political analyst at the University of South Africa, spoke to The Associated Press, suggesting the ANC’s greatest threat comes not from opposition parties but from a growing distrust within its own ranks. “This will not be one of the toughest elections for the ANC, it will be the toughest they have ever contested,” Kotze asserted.
In the 2019 elections, which brought Ramaphosa to power, the ANC garnered 57.5% of the vote, a significant drop from nearly 70% in the 2004 general elections. The party’s decline was further highlighted when former President Jacob Zuma, who served from 2009 to 2018, denounced the ANC last December. Zuma has since pledged his support to the newly-formed Umkhonto we Sizwe, or Spear of the Nation, urging his followers to back this party in the upcoming election.
The emergence of Umkhonto we Sizwe, along with previous breakaway groups like the Congress of the People and the Economic Freedom Fighters, suggests a continuing erosion of the ANC’s electoral base. Kotze predicts this trend will be particularly evident in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s stronghold, where the ANC’s support could dip below 50%.
Zuma’s own legal troubles, including his imprisonment for defying a court order and his ongoing trial for alleged corruption in a 1999 arms deal, add to the party’s challenges. If the ANC fails to secure a majority in the upcoming elections, it may need to consider coalition agreements with opposition parties.
While the exact election date remains unannounced, it is anticipated to occur between May and August this year. This election represents a critical juncture for the ANC as it strives to navigate internal rifts, public disillusionment, and the daunting task of revitalizing South Africa’s economy.
