The long-standing conflict over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has reached a new impasse, as Egypt announced on Tuesday that the latest round of negotiations with Ethiopia and Sudan had failed to produce any agreement. Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 97% of its water needs, said it would monitor the process of filling and operating the dam and reserved its right to defend its water and national security in case of any harm.
Ethiopia, which sees the dam as a vital source of hydropower for its economic development, accused Egypt of misrepresenting its positions and maintaining a “colonial era mentality” that disregards the interests of the upstream countries. Ethiopia said it had completed the fourth and final phase of filling the reservoir for the $4 billion project in September, despite the objections of Egypt and Sudan, which fear the dam will reduce their share of the Nile waters and affect their agriculture and electricity sectors.
The three countries have been engaged in on-and-off talks for years, mediated by the African Union, the United States, and the United Nations, but have failed to reach a legally binding deal on the filling and operation of the dam. In July, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed agreed to finalize an agreement within four months, but the talks have stalled over technical and legal issues.
The latest round of talks, which began on Sunday in Cairo, ended with no progress and no date set for resuming the dialogue. Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation said in a statement that Ethiopia’s “persistent refusal” to accept any compromise solutions had rendered the meeting “unsuccessful”. Ethiopia’s foreign ministry said in a statement that Egypt was unwilling to accommodate the legitimate concerns of the upstream countries and had erected “roadblocks” against efforts to settle.
The dispute over the GERD, which is being built on the Blue Nile near the border with Sudan, has raised regional tensions and sparked fears of a potential military confrontation. The Blue Nile is a major tributary of the Nile, which flows through 11 countries and supports more than 250 million people. The Nile is also a source of cultural and religious significance for the people living along its banks.
The GERD, which is expected to have a capacity of more than 6,000 megawatts when completed, is the centerpiece of Ethiopia’s ambition to become Africa’s biggest power exporter. Ethiopia says the dam will provide electricity to more than 65 million people who currently lack access and will also boost its industrial and agricultural sectors. Ethiopia also argues that the dam will benefit the downstream countries by regulating the flow of the Nile, preventing floods and droughts, and enhancing regional cooperation.
However, Egypt and Sudan have expressed concern about the impact of the dam on their water security, especially in the absence of a binding agreement that guarantees their rights and interests. They have also raised questions about the safety and environmental effects of the dam, which could pose a threat to their dams and infrastructure in case of a breach or malfunction. They have called for a comprehensive and fair solution that respects the principles of international law and the 2015 Declaration of Principles signed by the three countries.
The Nile Dam dispute is one of the most complex and contentious issues facing Africa today, as it involves not only technical and legal aspects, but also political and historical dimensions. The dispute reflects the changing dynamics and power relations in the region, as well as the challenges and opportunities of managing shared water resources in the context of climate change and growing demand. The dispute also highlights the need for dialogue and cooperation among the Nile basin countries, as well as the role of regional and international actors in facilitating a peaceful and sustainable resolution.
The year 2023 marks the first major conference of the United Nations dedicated to water since 1977. The UN 2023 Water Conference, which will take place in March, will focus on the progress and challenges of achieving the water-related goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, as well as the human rights to water and sanitation. The conference will also provide a platform for sharing best practices and lessons learned from water cooperation and partnership initiatives around the world. The Nile dam dispute, as one of the most prominent and pressing cases of water diplomacy, will likely feature prominently in the discussions and deliberations of the conference.
As the clock ticks towards the deadline for reaching an agreement on the GERD, the three countries face a critical choice between confrontation and cooperation, between zero-sum and win-win outcomes, and between water scarcity and water security. The fate of the Nile, and the millions of people who depend on it, hangs in the balance.
Source: Reuters
