South Africa faces a daunting challenge as it grapples with a power supply crisis that threatens to derail its efforts to meet the 2030 carbon emissions reduction targets set under the Paris climate agreement. The country, ranked as the 11th largest greenhouse gas emitter globally and known for its high per capita emissions, had committed to reducing emissions to between 350 and 420 million tonnes by 2030. However, it now appears increasingly unlikely that these goals will be met.
To achieve the emissions reduction targets, South Africa had initially planned to decommission eight coal-fired power plants, with six scheduled for closure by 2030 and the remaining two by 2034. These coal plants are responsible for approximately half of the country’s emissions. Unfortunately, bureaucratic delays have hindered the transition to a renewable energy policy, making the original timeline for decommissioning unattainable.
Government officials, who chose to remain anonymous, have acknowledged the grim reality. An official in the president’s office stated, “Our models suggest we will miss the 2030 target.” While discussions about a new decommissioning target for 2035 are ongoing, the country’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 remains unchanged. An official from South Africa’s power utility, Eskom, also confirmed the likelihood of missing the 2030 target.
In response, the environment ministry, which endorses climate targets, has maintained its commitment to achieving the Paris agreement goals. It stated that it is premature to conclude that the 2030 targets will be missed, emphasizing that a greenhouse gas inventory report will be submitted to the United Nations before the upcoming COP28 summit.
South Africa’s predicament reflects a global trend of countries and companies backtracking on climate pledges. Canada recently faced criticism for missing its 2030 Paris targets, while British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delayed a ban on new petrol car sales until 2035. Major oil and gas companies like BP, Shell, and Exxon Mobil have also faced scrutiny for delaying or abandoning their transition to renewable energy. In addition, several European countries reopened mothballed coal-fired power plants in the past year.
Crispian Olver, executive director of the Presidential Climate Commission, urged South Africa to reconsider the extension of coal plants’ lifespan, citing the ongoing power crisis. The country has been grappling with blackouts of up to 10 hours a day for the past 18 months.
Extending the life of coal plants carries risks, including reduced trade competitiveness, limited access to capital, diminished geopolitical influence, and potential loss of international support. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent body monitoring progress toward the Paris Agreement, will assess countries’ climate goals at COP28. Catrina Godinho, a Climate Specialist at the World Bank and CAT member, emphasized that missing emission targets not only contributes to global climate change but also negatively affects the health and well-being of South Africans living in areas with high pollution from coal plants.
Despite the challenges and setbacks, there remains hope that South Africa can navigate its power crisis and chart a sustainable path toward meeting its climate commitments. The nation’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 underscores its determination to address climate change and protect its citizens’ health and environment.
Source: Reuters
