The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed Nigeria’s projected economic growth by 0.3%. As unveiled in the ‘2023 World Economic Outlook’ during the ongoing annual meetings in Marrakech, Morocco, the IMF attributes this revision to fluctuating crude oil production.
The Guardian reported that the new forecast reveals a dip in Nigeria’s economic growth from 3.3% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023, with a mild uptick to 3.1% in 2024. Key drivers behind these projections include the impacts of rising inflation on consumer spending and a drop in oil and gas output, partly due to maintenance endeavors.
Simultaneously, the growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 3.3% for 2023, rising to 4.0% in 2024. This pace, however, lags behind the historical average of 4.8% due to elements like adverse weather, global economic deceleration, and local supply issues, especially in the power sector.
Globally, a decline from 3.5% growth in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023, dipping slightly further to 2.9% in 2024, is anticipated. In contrast, emerging markets and developing economies foresee minor reductions, hovering around 4.0% for both 2023 and 2024.
The report underscores the significance of collaborative efforts to deter potential fragmentation in the global economic arena. Highlighting the essential role of multilateral frameworks, the report calls for reinforced assurance in trade policies to cultivate a reliable foundation for businesses and nations.
Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized the importance of a robust financial safety net, with the IMF playing a central role.
Speaking about Nigeria, Daniel Leigh, Division Chief at the IMF’s Research Department, cited challenges like demonetization, high inflation, and agriculture and hydrocarbon setbacks. He acknowledged, however, President Tinubu’s swift reforms, including eliminating fuel subsidies and streamlining the official exchange rate. Leigh sees these reforms as crucial for ensuring robust and inclusive growth in the nation.
