Africa has witnessed a wave of coups and coup attempts in the past year, raising fears of a democratic backsliding in the continent. The latest coup in Gabon, where General Brice Oligui Nguema ousted his distant cousin President Ali Bongo, was the eighth military takeover in Africa since 2020. Other countries that have experienced coups or coup attempts include Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan.
The coup leaders have often cited corruption, mismanagement and poverty as the main reasons for their actions, echoing the arguments used by previous coup plotters in the post-colonial era. However, these justifications have not convinced many observers, who see the coups as opportunistic power grabs by ambitious generals.
Some of the factors that have contributed to the resurgence of coups in Africa include:
- The fragility of democratic institutions and the lack of trust in electoral processes. Many of the countries that have faced coups have had long-serving leaders who have manipulated the constitution to extend their terms or cling to power. For example, President Bongo of Gabon had been in office since 2009, succeeding his father who ruled for 42 years. He had faced protests and accusations of electoral fraud in the past. Similarly, President Alpha Conde of Guinea had amended the constitution to allow him to run for a third term in 2020, sparking violent demonstrations and a disputed election.
- The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the economic downturn. The pandemic has worsened the already dire situation of many African countries, which have been struggling with poverty, unemployment, inequality and debt. The pandemic has also exposed the weaknesses of the public health systems and the social safety nets, leaving many people vulnerable and dissatisfied. The economic crisis has also reduced the resources available for the governments to maintain their patronage networks and buy off potential challengers.
- The influence of regional and international actors. Some of the coups have been influenced by the dynamics of regional politics and security, as well as the interests of external powers. For instance, the coup in Mali in 2020 was partly driven by the frustration of the military with the government’s handling of the Islamist insurgency in the north, which has also affected neighbouring countries such as Burkina Faso and Niger. The coup in Sudan in 2021 was seen as a setback for the transition to democracy that had been supported by the African Union and the United Nations but opposed by some of Sudan’s allies in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
- The role of social media and civil society. The rise of social media and civil society groups has also played a role in the coup dynamics, both as a catalyst and a constraint. On the one hand, social media has enabled the mobilization of popular protests and the dissemination of information and opinions, challenging the legitimacy and authority of the governments. On the other hand, social media and civil society have also been instrumental in denouncing the coups and demanding the restoration of democracy and the rule of law. For example, in Niger, a coalition of civil society organizations and political parties organized a mass rally to condemn the attempted coup in March 2021, while in Sudan, thousands of people took to the streets to protest against the military takeover in October 2021.
The recent coups in Africa have raised serious concerns about the future of democracy and stability in the continent, as well as the implications for human rights, development and peace. However, they have also sparked a strong reaction from the African and international community, which have condemned the coups and imposed sanctions and pressure on the coup leaders to return to constitutional order. Moreover, the coups have also revealed the resilience and the aspiration of the African people for democratic governance and social justice, as evidenced by their resistance and mobilization against the military regimes. Therefore, there is still hope that the coup epidemic can be contained and reversed, and that Africa can resume its progress towards a more democratic and prosperous future.
Source: [BBC Verify]
